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There is little downside in waiting one more month in comparison to the downside exposure from potentially raising rates too soon. At that time, they also foreshadowed an intent to raise rates again before the end of the year. In the midst of an extended rally, the Canadian Dollar has driven the USDCAD pair lower and now finds itself descending a multi month downward channel, and with the rising strength in the Canadian economy, there is little relief in sight. Directionally, this leads the CAD lower on the week, although with less velocity than if there were another rate move. While we do not envision this scenario playing out, binary traders should be aware of the possibility. In either case, when surprising numbers print, it forces everyone to take notice, and in many cases, recalibrate new outlooks and trading plans around a new view of reality. The Bank of Canada raised rates for the first time in 7 years in July, which was a clear signal to markets of increased growth expectations. That topped the publicly available forecast of all analysts. GDP and other economic indicators, election results, and future forex rates for countries all over the world. Canadian employment has looked good, trade is positive and housing is going through the roof in several markets.

Inflation remains low in Canada, while the Canadian Dollar remains relatively high. The rate announcement from the Bank of Canada comes this Wednesday morning. Oklahoma, which explains his love of college football, BBQ and oil markets. Most traders thought that second hike might come in October, if it came at all. GDP print, several forecasters have put a rate hike this week back on the table. CAD, and should lead to major volatility in price. This scenario would call for enhanced language from the Bank pointing to next month which should still be constructive for the CAD to continue to move lower against the Dollar. Being in an enviable spot, they might want to relish it as opposed to changing the circumstances too quickly.

That would further indicate that the economy, in the eyes of their central bankers at least, is not only sturdy, but at risk of overheating. There is little upside to a raise here versus October compared to the downside risk that is exposed if rates are raised too quickly. It is reasonable to assume the Bank takes a conservative tack and views oil and gas as still somewhat unsteady with an elevated possibility for shifting conditions from quarter to quarter through 2018. GDP number is attributable to an uptick in oil and gas activity. The Bank meets again to revisit rates in October. This dual dynamic gives the Bank of Canada room to be patient and not move as early as next week. Canadians what an arduous path it can be to form a rally like this, as they consider how hard America has pursued the types of numbers they are now printing. However, even with all of those positive indicators, markets held a rather remote possibility for a second rate hike being initiated this month. In the wake of such a bullish data print, the Canadians are radiating the distinct image of a revving economic engine that is ready to go. Simply put, no one saw it coming.

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